KMG’/COVID—19/Publication
Post – Covid -19 Challenges and Opportunities for the United Nations, WHO and UNICEF -Globally and Locally-Role of Developing Countries with Reference to India
(Dr. K.M. George, President, Sustainable Development Forum, (SDF) India; melmana@gmail.com)
Introduction:
Corona and Covid-19 have become synonymous to an unparalled pandemic the world over. It has assumed various vicissitudes. Covid-19 is experienced now in 213 countries and territories. Even the mighty nations like the superpowers are scared of the unknown virus on account of its unpredictable aftereffects. Infected people the world over stand today at 75,20,232 while the death toll is 420, 583.
Many were caught unawares in countries like Italy, America, Russia, Brazil, Spain, UK, etc. to mention a few. May be the success story of South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and the wonder story of New Zealand must be an eye opener to world organizations like the UN and WHO. Even the mighty America must humble itself to learn the lessons from others by shedding its holier than thou attitude and from being a bullying nation of self-righteousness.
The magnitude of COVID -19 is alarming. By mid-June 2020, the number of infected persons stand at 75,20,232 the world over with a death rate 4,20 583. USA stands with 20,72,274 infected people and 1,15,291 deaths; Brazil 7,75,581 and 39,803, Russia 5,02,436 and 6,532; India 2,97,001 and 8,321; UK 2,91,409 and 41, 279; Spain 2,89,360 and 27,136; Italy 2,36,142 and 34,167; Peru 2,08,823 and 5,903; Germany 1,86,600 and 8,845; Iran 1,80, 156 and 8,584.
Now an attempt is made to depict the incidence of the pandemic globally a few days back, in Annexure -1.
It may be inferred from the Annexure that the pandemic has struck the world at large with varying degrees of intensity and damages. As the WHO has opined that one has to realize that we have to live with the virus as we did with HIV—AIDS for the last a few decades. It is said that SMS is going to be our future life style. SMS means soap, mask and social distancing.
How Prepared were the governments to handle it?
By hindsight it is a sad commentary on the preparedness of many sovereign governments. Italy with a huge old age population was totally unprepared to face such a calamity. America with its over rated self-confidence, Spain save its south region with its silly approach became huge victims of this pandemic. A few countries like India did well in pronouncing the lock down but with little preparation for its migrant labourers with in the country numbering millions form its Northern and Eastern regions to return home. Finally, millions were to be transported by busses and trains. Many perished while on travel in buses and trains. It was an affront on human dignity. There is one typical incident of a small child in Bihar State railway station, trying to wake up his dead mother by pulling the blanket covered over her dead body, attracting world attention of the insensitivity of the authorities!
There were dreadful scenes of migrants walking for thousands of kilometers as reported in the media. Unfortunately, even the Supreme Court of India did not intervene at that juncture where it was utmost required. However, it was forthcoming subsequently, as if it had second thoughts when somebody somewhere tried to prick its conscience.
Had there been at least one fortnight given to all those who wanted to go home by special trains, busses and planes, much of the subsequent sufferings could have been averted.
Millions of Indians stranded in the other countries could have gone home had there been enough notice given to them, particularly those in labour camps living in the Middle East—Gulf Regions. It is a cry on spilt milk now as time and tide wait for none.
Both proactive prudence and sagacity were given amiss by the governments when it came to impulsive nationwide declaration of the lockdown for reasons better known to the policy makers and their advisers. Admittedly the lockdowns and the social distancing did keep the community spread at bay in many a country by braking the chain. Nonetheless, the voice of the people, particularly the marginalized and the destitute were not given a decent hearing. Had there been fuller people’s participation, the pandemic would have been tamed and brought under human command and control more easily without giving an impression of coercive style of implementing the lockdowns.
The Way Forward
Having said the above and pinpointing the magnitude of the global ramifications of the malady, let us collectively consider the way forward to mitigate the damages it has done to the economy and the lives of millions of people.
India Specific Challenges and Prospects
It is inferred by informed sources like The Economist, “The COVID-19 leave behind us a smaller economy, which it describes as “the 90 percent economy”, for at least another 12 months because of fear and economic uncertainty. The “new normal” would be more fragile, less innovative, and more unfair (inequalities will deepen).
India needs to assess the damage to different sectors of its economy and the challenges to revive and rebuild in view of massive reverse migration, job losses, healthcare deficiencies, and fund constraints beset with many a sector.
This would entail addressing structural deficiencies.
Policy makers and planners are called up on to focus on the following.
A) Containing the menace of unemployment
The lockdown resulted in a situation of massive unemployment. The reverse migration of millions of workers was the biggest tragedy. They desperately wanted to return home after eight weeks of lockdown. Most of them have lost their jobs, dear ones and hopes. Many who walked miles from big cities like Mumbai too far off villages had perished half way like the Israelites walked with Moses to the promised land!
The Mumbai-based Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy -CMIE- opines that by the end of April, 72 million had lost their jobs; labour force (either working or looking for jobs) had reduced to 362 million from 434 million a month earlier; labour force participation rate -LFPR- had dropped to 35.4% of the population and the rank of those desperately looking for jobs had swollen to 85 million. These numbers are scary and are likely to worsen in June-July 2020. The situation may go from bad to worse.
Unemployment was bad even before the coronavirus pandemic. The Periodic Labour Force Survey -PLFS- of 2017-18 had revealed that the unemployment rate had touched a 45-year-high; about 9 million had lost their jobs between 2011-12 and 2017-18; labour force had fallen to 495 million and the LFPR to 36.9% during the same period.
B) Boosting up Government Medicare
Scientific studies suggest that COVID-19 could last for two or more years, warranting the continuation of social distancing for a long period. This means India needs to keep its public healthcare system very robust for a long time, and not go back to its excessive reliance on private healthcare.
C) Initiation and stepping up of institutional mechanisms and leadership
The absence of appropriate institutional mechanisms and leadership in responding to the current crises is too obvious to miss or ignore.
Unlike the US Congress, the Indian Parliament is nowhere in the scene when the country is facing unprecedented health and economic crisis. It is suggestive that India is a kind of absentee democracy in any major crisis. This must be a matter of introspection for the policy makers in legislative and judiciary realms alike.
D) Power and funds to states governments
The state governments are at the forefront of the COVID-19 battle. They would also play an equally critical role in the revival and rebuilding of the economy. Kerala has demonstrated how effectively the pandemic can be managed at the state level. One of the keys to the success was the delegation of power to district administrations, municipalities, and panchayats for lockdowns, contact tracing, quarantine or running of community kitchens.
Initial impact assessment of COVID-19 on the global economy is very gloomy. This is an indication of what can be expected. India needs to assess the damages to different sectors of its economy and the challenges to revive, and rebuild in view of massive reverse migration, job losses, healthcare deficiencies, and fund constraints.
E) Scaling up public spending to infuse life into the economy
Economists, management experts, health practitioners and sociologists are of the unanimous view that the COVID-19 pandemic calls for loosening the purse and keeping fiscal austerity aside in the current crisis.
Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who was once part of the global drive for fiscal austerity, wrote a paper ‘Four Priorities for Pandemic Relief’ on May 1 tells the US that “the true danger is austerity” at this time. He advised,” higher government investment in education, infrastructure and technology to boost growth because not doing so would be counterproductive and slow down GDP growth”.
Our own Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee has been consistently advocating for opening the fiscal gates and spending more. The former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Prof Raghuram Rajan argues in the vein. States are demanding for liberal relaxing of fiscal deficit norms from 3% to 5% of their GDP. It is time for the Government of India to be pragmatic in such a calamity with magnanimity.
Now it is fair to flag a few policy issues for the UN and the national governments in general and for the Government of India in particular.
1) It is time for the UN bodies and national governments to think globally with locally focused action plans to regain the tempo of economic growth process and recapture human dignity, instead of getting into acrimonious accusations of the origin and the spread of the virus or sentimentally and unilaterally declaring to withdraw from WHO and other agencies. Global actions are required to fight this malady with concerted efforts. All need to grow up in stature as statesmen. At the end of the day, we must dance like New Zealanders, after winning the war against Covid 19.
2) As the most vulnerable are children below the age of 10 and senior citizens above 65, conscious efforts are required to give special attention to this target group in health care, education and boosting immunity targeted to them.
3) UN must prepare a roadmap under its concerned agencies like WHO, FAO, UNICEF, ILO, and WFP, to mention a few, to launch emergency programmes and projects aimed at the most vulnerable sections of the population with the active participation of the local people, NGOs and governments to address the felt needs on a phased manner. There is a need for addressing immediate short-term needs like food, shelter, medicines, water, clothing etc. Also, we need to consider medium term plans to augment the income generation, asset creation and employment promotion programmes.
4) There is a big danger of massive unemployment and starvation in the near future in several regions and the resultant social unrest, looting and armed robbery, etc. A stich in time saves nine, says the old adage. We must be proactive and pragmatic as policy makers. Good governance must guarantee food security to its citizens along with basic needs including health care.
5) FAO, WFP, UNICEF and WHO must embark on a massive rebuilding programme with minimum leakages, so that beneficiaries get the critical help meant for them, keeping the administrative cost at bare minimum. By the rule of thumb, 90 percent of the funds must reach the ultimate beneficiary, keeping 10 percent for administrative overhead costs.
6) A massive impact assessment must be undertaken by specially trained team of experts to ascertain the socio- economic repercussions of the pandemic by uniformly designed questionnaires and trained staff so that the rebuilding strategy must be uniformly evolved taking into consideration the local compulsions as exceptions. Admittedly there is no, one size fits all criteria to be insisted on.
7) UNICEF has a never before challenge to address the needs of under age children, who are below ten years, to equip them to become immune rich and study brilliancy oriented programme during the on line educate system.
8) Many children in tribal areas and slums are without the required gadgets like TV or smart phones and internet connections. It is a challenge and opportunity alike for the UNICEF, so that school drop outs are contained with best incentives. UNICEF to think globally and act locally to make them people friendly with the local government support.
9) Food security must be the non-negotiable creed for UN under its arms like WFP and FAO. It must be comprehensively addressed by appropriate programmes and policies on war footing along with governments.
10) Critical areas like Food Security, Education and Medical Support, in slums and tribal areas along with rural areas must be accorded top priory.
11) Public distribution system must be made fool proof and the grains, pulses and cooking oil must reach the target groups without leakages. How to operationalize it, is the task of the government machinery and the local NGOs.
12) The poor must be the real target group for rehabilitation. They were missed out while planning the lockdown as thousands of them form big cities in India had set out on foot for their native villages to escape starvation, unemployment and disease during the pandemic. The distance was thousands of miles. Several perished on the way without reaching their destinations, awakening the collective conscience of social media and judiciary in India.
13) As practiced in a few countries even prior to Covid-19, all must use the new mantra of SMS—Soap—Mask and Social distancing.
14) Lockdown was successful. It was helpful to contain the spread of Covid 19 to a great extent. But breaking the chain was achieved by social distancing and wearing of mask and hand cleaning by soap / sanitizer. This must be continued even after the pandemic is over.
15) As the world continues to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, Israel remains on the frontlines of the battle, spearheading efforts to treat patients and find a vaccine. All out efforts must be made to develop a vaccine which can address this pandemic in its various forms and hues due to mutations. This is the million-dollar challenge to policy makers and researchers alike including WHO. Care must be exercised not to spread the valuable resources too thinly in the development of a vaccine. Pharma companies must pool their wherewithal under a coordinated leadership of any one mutually agreed up on agency or agencies so that the aim is achieved with in the shortest time span. Economically well off nations must reduce the budgetary allocations meant for the defence purposes, for this cause as it is for the wellness for the world at large. In a way they it would champion the cause of the SDGs of the UN too in this process making the way for a Nobel price.
16) In order to boost growth, the engine of the economy must be geared up. Bank loans must be granted against the purpose and not based on the security offered. Interest rates must be drastically reduced to make it affordable and attractive. Again, for existing loans, repayment and interest must have realistic moratorium giving relief to the borrowers.
17) There is a news item about China giving special training to the migrant workers numbering some 14 million. Taking a clue from its other developing countries must provide soft skill and other skill training to its migrant workers to equip them for the changing situations. India must accord top priority to its migrant works as well.
18) India boasts about its great achievement of sending back some six million migrant workers after they were making much noise at the middle of the lockdown periods. It was very poorly organized and planned with untold sufferings to millions both physical and psychological. If the urban labour needs to be addressed, the migrant labourers must be assured fair wages and adequate insurance coverage for themselves and their family members. Indian Economy can grow only with the active participation these workers unless it goes in big way with artificial intelligence enabled robots in the factory premises. Adequate policies and programmes must be in place to make it proactive.
19) It is said that some 219 million Indian workers are employed under self-help groups popularly known as MGNREGA.They must be challenged to take up daily wage work as before with weekly payments through bank accounts to plug leakages immediately.
20) There are some 633 million MSMES in India. According to the MSME Ministry’s financial year2019 annual report, the MSME sector is dominated by micro-enterprises. Out of 633 million, 99.4 per cent are micro-enterprises while 0.52 per cent are medium. They are the real growth engines of the economy in terms of employment generation and the make in India brand ambassadors. These Micro, Medium, Small scale Enterprises must be given all out support, if we want the economy to make any turn around immediately. Adequate policy and money support must be accorded to them on war footing.
21) It is a truism that India is an agrarian economy. The majority the population are engaged in the primary sector for their livelihoods. Both crop husbandry and animal husbandry dominate the rural economy. It is no exaggeration that some 65 to 70 percent are in the villages, mostly engaged in agriculture, livestock rearing, fishing, etc., leave alone the tribal and the aboriginals of the developing regions of the world. They are the backbone of the economy. Their produce must get remunerative price. It must cover cost of cultivation plus opportunity cost and a fair margin of profit. Otherwise, agriculture would become an obsolete way of living for the posterity. Governments must make provisions for buy back of the produce with value additions. Here under the post-Covid 19 rebuilding of the economy must be accorded top priority.
22) Public spending must be given priority during this time. Programmes must be taken up to expedite such spending with a view to reaching directly the masses the benefits on a day to day basis. As done during the Great Depression era, we too must choke out plans for expediting public spending to pull the economy form the current abysmal conditions.
23) The role of production oriented programmes and supportive institutions is of paramount importance under such a pandemic. Banks must be proactive without being over cautious of security of the loan. They must make sure the end use of the credit is not diverted. Credit absorption capacity and adequacy of the credit must be given due consideration while dispensing loans. Banks must become facilitators instead of becoming modern day Shylocks. There must be strict monitoring of the end use of credit by banks, instead of lamenting on huge non-performing assets portfolio (NPA).
24) There is an urgent need to form a Water and Sanitation Missions -WSM- in all developing countries to make post -Covid -19 era to be a decade for collective wellness.
25) The byword must be caution with Soap—Mask and Social Distancing (SMS).
Acknowledgements:
I have received help at an early stage of the drafting of this paper from several professionals including Dr PO Abraham, Dr John Akkara, Dr Sojan Ipe, Mr. Ramamurthy, Dr N Tunwar, Dr M R Das, Mr. K Kannan, Mr. Kuriachan Thomas, Ms. Ildiko Rose; Mr. Thomas Mathew, Rev Dr. Abraham Mulamootil and Mr. Binney Cherian. I am grateful to them. If mistakes any, are only attributable to me .
ANNEXURE–1
Country Cases Deaths Region
United States 2,068,139 115,166 North America
Brazil 775,581 39,803 South America
Russia 502,436 6,532 Europe
United Kingdom 291,409 41,279 Europe
India 289,936 8,143 Asia
Spain 289,360 27,136 Europe
Italy 235,763 34,114 Europe
Peru 208,823 5,903 South America
Germany 186,547 8,845 Europe
Iran 180,156 8,584 Asia
Turkey 173,036 4,746 Asia
France 155,136 29,319 Europe
Chile 148,496 2,475 South America
Mexico 129,184 15,357 North America
Pakistan 119,536 2,356 Asia
Saudi Arabia 116,021 857 Asia
Canada 97,125 7,960 North America
China 83,057 4,634 Asia
Bangladesh 78,052 1,049 Asia
Qatar 75,071 69 Asia
Belgium 59,711 9,636 Europe
South Africa 55,421 1,210 Africa
Belarus 51,816 293 Europe
Sweden 48,288 4,814 Europe
Netherlands 48,251 6,044 Europe
Ecuador 44,440 3,720 South America
Colombia 43,682 1,433 South America
United Arab Emirates 40,986 286 Asia
Singapore 39,387 25 Asia
Egypt 38,284 1,342 Africa
Portugal 35,910 1,504 Europe
Indonesia 35,295 2,000 Asia
Kuwait 34,432 279 Asia
Switzerland 31,044 1,937 Europe
Ukraine 29,070 854 Europe
Poland 28,201 1,215 Europe
Argentina 25,987 741 South America
Ireland 25,231 1,695 Europe
Philippines 24,175 1,036 Asia
Afghanistan 22,890 426 Asia
Romania 21,182 1,369 Europe
Dominican Republic 20,808 550 North America
Oman 19,954 89 Asia
Israel 18,461 300 Asia
Japan (+Diamond Princess) 17,963 932 Asia
Panama 17,889 413 North America
Austria 17,034 674 Europe
Bahrain 16,667 34 Asia
Iraq 15,414 426 Asia
Bolivia 15,281 512 South America
Armenia 14,669 245 Asia
Nigeria 13,873 382 Africa
Kazakhstan 13,558 67 Asia
Serbia 12,102 252 Europe
Denmark 12,035 593 Europe
South Korea 11,947 276 Asia
Algeria 10,484 732 Africa
Ghana 10,358 48 Africa
Moldova 10,321 371 Europe
Czech Republic (Czechia) 9,826 328 Europe
Azerbaijan 8,882 108 Asia
Cameroon 8,681 212 Africa
Norway 8,600 242 Europe
Morocco 8,533 211 Africa
Malaysia 8,369 118 Asia
Guatemala 8,221 316 North America
Honduras 7,360 290 North America
Australia 7,285 102 Australia/Oceania
Finland 7,064 325 Europe
Sudan 6,582 401 Africa
Tajikistan 4,763 48 Asia
Senegal 4,759 55 Africa
Uzbekistan 4,717 19 Asia
Nepal 4,614 15 Asia
DR Congo 4,515 98 Africa
Djibouti 4,398 37 Africa
Guinea 4,258 23 Africa
Côte d’Ivoire 4,181 41 Africa
Luxembourg 4,049 110 Europe
Hungary 4,039 553 Europe
Haiti 3,796 58 North America
North Macedonia 3,538 169 Europe
Gabon 3,375 22 Africa
El Salvador 3,373 64 North America
Kenya 3,215 92 Africa
Thailand 3,125 58 Asia
Greece 3,068 183 Europe
Bulgaria 2,993 167 Europe
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,832 161 Europe
Venezuela 2,738 23 South America
Ethiopia 2,670 40 Africa
Somalia 2,513 85 Africa
Croatia 2,249 106 Europe
Mayotte 2,226 28 Africa
Cuba 2,219 84 North America
Kyrgyzstan 2,129 26 Asia
Estonia 1,965 69 Europe
Maldives 1,962 8 Asia
Central African Republic 1,952 5 Africa
Sri Lanka 1,873 11 Asia
Iceland 1,807 10 Europe
Lithuania 1,752 74 Europe
Mali 1,667 96 Africa
South Sudan 1,604 19 Africa
Slovakia 1,541 28 Europe
New Zealand 1,504 22 Australia/Oceania
Slovenia 1,488 109 Europe
Nicaragua 1,464 55 North America
Costa Rica 1,461 12 North America
Lebanon 1,402 31 Asia
Guinea-Bissau 1,389 12 Africa
Albania 1,385 35 Europe
Equatorial Guinea 1,306 12 Africa
Mauritania 1,283 71 Africa
Madagascar 1,203 10 Africa
Paraguay 1,202 11 South America
Zambia 1,200 10 Africa
Hong Kong 1,108 4 Asia
Latvia 1,094 26 Europe
Tunisia 1,087 49 Africa
Sierra Leone 1,062 50 Africa
Niger 974 65 Africa
Cyprus 974 18 Asia
French Guiana 917 2 South America
Burkina Faso 891 53 Africa
Jordan 863 9 Asia
Andorra 852 51 Europe
Uruguay 847 23 South America
Chad 846 72 Africa
Georgia 831 13 Asia
Congo 728 24 Africa
San Marino 691 42 Europe
Uganda 679 0 Africa
Malta 640 9 Europe
Sao Tome & Principe 632 12 Africa
Cabo Verde 616 5 Africa
Jamaica 605 10 North America
Channel Islands 565 48 Europe
Yemen 560 129 Asia
Togo 522 13 Africa
Tanzania 509 21 Africa
Réunion 486 1 Africa
State of Palestine 485 3 Asia
Rwanda 476 2 Africa
Mozambique 472 2 Africa
Malawi 455 4 Africa
Taiwan 443 7 Asia
Liberia 410 31 Africa
Eswatini 398 3 Africa
Libya 378 5 Africa
Mauritius 337 10 Africa
Isle of Man 336 24 Europe
Vietnam 332 0 Asia
Montenegro 324 9 Europe
Zimbabwe 320 4 Africa
Benin 305 4 Africa
Myanmar 249 6 Asia
Martinique 202 14 North America
Mongolia 194 0 Asia
Faeroe Islands 187 0 Europe
Cayman Islands 180 1 North America
Gibraltar 176 0 Europe
Guadeloupe 164 14 North America
Comoros 162 2 Africa
Guyana 156 12 South America
Syria 152 6 Asia
Suriname 144 2 South America
Bermuda 141 9 North America
Brunei 141 2 Asia
Cambodia 126 0 Asia
Trinidad and Tobago 117 8 North America
Angola 113 4 Africa
Bahamas 103 11 North America
Aruba 101 3 North America
Monaco 99 4 Europe
Barbados 96 7 North America
Burundi 83 1 Africa
Liechtenstein 82 1 Europe
Sint Maarten 77 15 North America
Bhutan 62 0 Asia
French Polynesia 60 0 Australia/Oceania
Botswana 48 1 Africa
Macao 45 0 Asia
Saint Martin 41 3 North America
Eritrea 41 0 Africa
Namibia 31 0 Africa
Gambia 28 1 Africa
St. Vincent & Grenadines 27 0 North America
Antigua and Barbuda 26 3 North America
Timor-Leste 24 0 Asia
Grenada 23 0 North America
Curaçao 22 1 North America
New Caledonia 21 0 Australia/Oceania
Belize 20 2 North America
Laos 19 0 Asia
Saint Lucia 19 0 North America
Fiji 18 0 Australia/Oceania
Dominica 18 0 North America
Saint Kitts & Nevis 15 0 North America
Falkland Islands 13 0 South America
Greenland 13 0 North America
Turks and Caicos 12 1 North America
Holy See 12 0 Europe
Montserrat 11 1 North America
Seychelles 11 0 Africa
MS Zaandam 9 2
Western Sahara 9 1 Africa
British Virgin Islands 8 1 North America
Papua New Guinea 8 0 Australia/Oceania
Caribbean Netherlands 7 0 North America
Saint Barthelemy 6 0 North America
Lesotho 4 0 Africa
Anguilla 3 0 North America
Saint Pierre & Miquelon 1 0 North America
Source: WHO
ANNEXURE-2
Case Comparison
WHO Regions
Americas
3,485,245confirmed cases
Europe
2,339,145confirmed cases
Eastern Mediterranean
696,841confirmed cases
South-East Asia
407,414confirmed cases
Western Pacific
194,470confirmed cases
Africa
150,102confirmed cases
Jan 31Feb 29Mar 31Apr 30May 31
Source: WHO