1. 1 Introduction:
The annual summit of COP 27 comes at a crucial juncture against the backdrop of spiraling global inflation, energy crisis, food and supply chain crises and the ongoing war in Ukraine. This is overshadowed by the extreme weather events. The available data show that the world is shying away from acting decisively. It does not suit the private interest of the major emitters to focus on the efforts to decarbonize financing climate action measures and other related issues of food security, energy and biodiversity.
The COP 27 is scheduled to be held in Egypt on 6th November 2022 to stave off the worst effects of global warming. The background is very critical as the world underwent the covid-19 pandemic for almost two years with unheard of misery to the peoples and the economies. It is estimated that some ten million people perished due to covid-19 and the world development received the worst deceleration with multiplier effects. A breakthrough must be made in correcting historic mistakes committed by the affluent west in exploiting the rest of the world. The heavy burning of fossil fuels by the top five emitters namely China, USA, India, Russia and Japan must be an eye opener at least to the World conscience.
COP 27 priorities, among others, include the following.
- Climate Action
- Climate Finance.
- Renewable Energy
- Fossil Fuels
- Global Green Gas Emissions.
It is woven around the theme of climate change adaptation and mitigation.
1.2Climate change
- Climate change includes both human-induced global warming and its large-scale impacts on weather patterns. There have been previous periods of climate change, but the current changes are more rapid than any known events in Earth’s history.
- It is “a broad range of global phenomena created predominantly by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping gases to Earth’s atmosphere. These phenomena include the increased temperature trends described by global warming, but also encompass changes such as sea-level rise; ice mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, the Arctic, and mountain glaciers worldwide; shifts in flower/plant blooming; and extreme weather events.”
- Global warming is just one aspect of climate change. In fact, they say that global warming refers to the rise in global temperatures due mainly to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. On the other hand, climate change refers to the increasing changes in the measures of climate over a long period of time – including precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns.
- Following the same line of thought, global warming refers only to the Earth’s rising surface temperature, while climate change includes warming and the “side effects” of warming—like melting glaciers, heavier rainstorms, or more frequent droughts. Ultimately, this means that global warming is one side of the much larger problem of human-caused climate change.
- When we talk about climate change, we are often talking about the increase in temperatures linked to industrial activities and in particular the greenhouse effects. Therefore, we sometimes speak of global warming, which is said to be “of anthropogenic origin”. Ultimately, the causes of global warming (at least at its current rate) are not natural but driven by the human, economy, and industries.
- Many scientists are studying this phenomenon and trying to understand how activities of human societies are responsible for this heating. These scientists are grouped together in the International Group of Experts on Climate, and they regularly publish reports studying the evolution of climate change, such as the one published in late 2018.
2.1 Background
The first assumptions about the greenhouse effect were made by scientist Jacques Fourier in 1824, whose work was followed by several scientists who tried to quantify this phenomenon, like Claude Pouille, John Tyndall, and Svante Arrhenius. In fact, Arrhenius was the one who conducted the first experiment that accurately validated and quantified the greenhouse effect, at the end of the 19th century. He discovered that an air rich in carbon dioxide retains more heat from solar radiation leading to an increase in air temperature.
In the end, he concluded that if large quantities of carbon are released into the atmosphere (because of industrial activities that burn coal), the air will be charged with CO2 and more heat will be retained. By that time, the first estimates of temperature increases made by Arrhenius and other scientists were that if the greenhouse gases trapped in the atmosphere doubled, the average temperature of Earth would increase by 5º Celsius. In 1901, Gustaf Echols used for the first time the term “greenhouse effect” to describe this phenomenon.
For decades, these discoveries were not taken seriously in the scientific community. At that time, many experts believed that nature could self-regulate and that the impact on man was minimal. Notably, many scientists thought the excess CO2 would be absorbed by the ocean anyway, which is true within specific CO2 limits. Nevertheless, the thesis that global warming was linked with greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide) was proven to be true and validated in the 1940s by Gilbert Pass. Nowadays, with modern technologies, there is solid evidence that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere affects the ability of the air to retain infrared radiation and heat.
3.1Global Warming Awareness and Green Economy
In the 60s, several scientists showed the assumptions on the greenhouse effect were actually real. For what matters, Charles David Keeling proved, for instance, that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was gradually increasing thanks to its measurements near Hawaii.
By its turn, Roger Revelled also proved that the carbon gases released by burning fossil fuels were not immediately absorbed by the ocean, as was previously thought. This discovery accelerated scientists’ worries about climate change and as a result, society and politicians slowly began thinking about these issues as a possible problem in the future.
A decade later, in 1971, during the first Earth Summit, the definition of global warming and its consequences were broadly discussed and a year later, in 1972, John Sawyer published a scientific report highlighting even more clearly the links between global warming and the greenhouse effect.
For over a decade, evidence of climate change has been accumulated in the scientific community until in the mid-1980s, the world’s 7 largest economic powers (the G7) called on the UN to create a group of experts to study this issue. This was the first time there was a real consideration and a true definition of climate change as a public problem by international institutions.
IPCC was created in 1988 with the purpose of studying the evolution of the phenomenon of climate change and its consequences. It brought (and stills brings) together hundreds of scientists, climatologists, geologists, oceanographers, and biologists, but also economists, sociologists, engineers and other specialists in various fields – with the goal of having a global vision of this phenomenon. The IPCC is structured in three working groups:
- The first group studies climate change as a phenomenon: they focus on the process and its magnitude;
- The second group is specialized and interested to know the vulnerability of ecosystems and societies, as well as how the planet reacts and adapts to climate change;
- The third and last group is responsible for studying the ways of fighting climate change. The IPCC made its first report in 1990 and they kept making new ones periodically until they published their last report in October 2018 that focuses on the impacts of a temperature increase of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, its GHG emission pathways and was built in an attempt to address policymakers more directly.
Overall, in these reports, the IPCC scientific community analyses the causes of climate change and its impacts on the ecosystem and on society by developing predictive models. These models and forecasts are then used by governments and businesses, helping them to put in place strategies to combat climate change or adapt to it.
4.1 Impact of Climate Change on the Planet’s Ecosystems
An increase in temperature due to global warming is not only about a heat increase that can be felt by humans or glacial ice melting – it has the potential to affect the planet’s entire ecosystem. As we have been watching in many different countries, from the US (California) to India or South Africa, the weather is getting disruptive. Extreme weather events are more regular and their patterns are changing – they are more intensive, aggressive, and with more energy. This means more storms, floods, cyclones, and droughts will take place over the next years.
At the same time, the regulating capacity of oceans is also being affected by an increase in temperatures. If global temperatures increase dramatically, ocean levels will not only increase – they will also be facing the ecological challenges of oceanic acidification and deoxygenation. At the same time, forest areas (e.g., Amazon rainforest), fragile ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs) and biodiversity (e.g., corals, insects and mammals) are also under threat.
5.1Impact of Climate Change on Society and the Economy
Furthermore, climate change is already challenging and can further challenge our societies. With the increase in temperatures in some countries, especially in equatorial regions, the flow of climate refugees is changing and increasing, putting pressure on other countries to host them, help them strive and overcome political barriers.
The reasons for this move have to do with natural resources, such as drinking water, that are getting more limited and many crops and livestock that are unlikely to survive (affecting locals but also the global economy of the several industries that rely on raw materials) in specific locations because of the temperature being too hot or too dry, too cold or too wet. And as it turns out, studies say that the wealthiest countries of the world will be the ones experiencing fewer changes in their local climate compared to the poorest regions if the global average surface temperatures reach between 1.5º and 2º Celsius.
6.1 Review of Progress Since COP 26:
It is known that participants are signatories to the United Nations Frame work Convention on Climate Change or UNFCCC. It adopted 30 years ago the UNFCCC. The first COP was held in Berlin in 1995. A few other COPs were outstanding on account of the far-reaching decisions taken for the world with far reaching consequences. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in the COP 3 in 1997. It committed the industrialized nations to limit the greenhouse gas emissions. COP 21 was held in Paris in 2015. In this summit member nations agreed to keep global warming below 2 degree Celsius, ideally below 1.5 degree compared to pre -industrial levels. COP 26 ended in Glasgow with a pact on climate that called for the phasing down of unabated coal burring for power generation.
The declared objective is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 to help keep temperatures rise below 2 degree Celsius as envisaged in the Paris agreement. To make the task faster and easier, the COP 27 summit muster courage to name the offenders. It is not easy as international diplomacy shy away from it. On the other hand, serious efforts must be made to focus on the economic benefits of decarbonization.
If we look back , the rich countries have the will and resources to face any global emergences like the 2008-09 international finical crisis. Again, a sum of $15 trillion was committed to fight the covid pandemic by the major economies. But they fail the climate in raising the UN -global funds by allocating a sum of $ 100 billion annually in climate finance for helping the developing countries.
If we are to achieve the carbon neutrality by 2050, all major emitters must fall in line. Let us stretch the logic a bit further. The price of achieving carbon neutrality is only marginal compared to the cost of having to adapt to an increasingly unlivable planet. The choice is one of “to be or not to be”.
The way out is to explore the renewable energy possibilities in a big way. Solar, wind and tidal wave energy may be tapped. Nonetheless, we must come out of the associated problems like weather conditions, weak transmission in girds and poor financial conditions of the stake holders.
Apart from the liberal incentives, one must think of disincentives like the introduction of carbon tax on the source of pollutions.
Member countries must be fully convinced of the outcome of the COP 27 as it would make its citizens healthier and cites cleaner.
6.2. Alarming Signs since COP 26
The planet is witnessing climate enhanced heat waves, storms and floods after recording just 1.2 degree Celsius of warming . Assuming the countries shy away to keep the pledges, the world may be on a track for around 2.5 degrees of warming. That is a sure recipe for a global disaster. The country specific action plans , reviewed so far, also known as NDCs—Nationally Determined Contributions to cut the emissions and adapt to climate impacts are far from satisfactory in the light of the Paris Agreement.
7.0
How to Augment the Green Process?
7.1Aggressive tree planting must be taken up on war footing. If one tree is cut, plant 10 immediately. Bamboos are known for their store house effects of carbon and wherever possible plant the best bamboo varieties for making it to benefit the farmers for value addition, etc as well as containing soil erosion. Once mature, bamboo poles can be selectively harvested every year, and used to make a wide range of durable products, which lock in carbon for the duration of a product’s lifespan. This high yield makes Bamboo a surprisingly effective carbon sink and important nature-based approach to mitigating global warming. By the same logic, stop deforestation. The amazon forests are to be replenished as the lungs of the world.
7.2People to choose the best diet for keeping the balance between nature and the creator. Meat diet is dangerous for the human system as the body anatomy is designed for vegetarian food. The wrong fuel will damage the machinery. Hence for better environment, let people turn back to the ecological food habits.
7.3Adopt the solar life style for heating, lighting, etc as it is the best for replacing the fossil fuel-based life style. It is sustainable as well in the long run.
7.4The use of paper must be kept minimum in offices and households, so that the need to cut trees is minimal.
7.5The reckless use of power from fossil fuel must be contained for a gradual change over to eco-friendly sources, so that the planet is worth living for humans and all other creatures and plants.
7.6All out efforts must be made to educate school children, college students and even the grown-up men and women to create awareness about carbon emission, carbon credit and the ill effects of carbon emissions. Essay competitions and elocution competitions may be organised in schools, colleges and NGO type organisations like Rotary, Lions, YMCA/YWCA/ WCC/ NSS of schools /colleges, and places of worship to create awareness on the need to cut the methane emissions, climate finance, etc. Make use of electronic media and print media as well as social media to sphere head an ongoing campaign on the ill effects of the green gas and as how to contain it on war footing. Every home must aim for one bamboo per member. If land is a limiting factor, we must use pots to plant bamboos.
7.7 Decarbonisation must be the talk of the town for policy makers and politicians alike. Mercury rising must influence our thought process day in and day out, if we love the planet that we live and bequeath to the posterity. The concept of carbon credit must be widely popularised. It represents the right to emit a measured amount of GHG. Carbon credits work as a certification that business or individual owning them is counterbalancing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). The ultimate purpose of carbon credits is, therefore, to reduce the emission of GHG into the atmosphere.
7.8 It is not about the CO2 only. Carbon dioxide is by far the most important driver of climate change. But methane is not small culprit either. Methane (CH4) is a hydrocarbon that is a primary component of natural gas. Methane is also a greenhouse gas (GHG), so its presence in the atmosphere affects the earth’s temperature and climate system. Methane is emitted from a variety of anthropogenic (human-influenced) and natural sources. Hence policy focus must be directed at it as well.
7.9 The people who are least responsible for the global warming are destined to suffer the worst consequences. It is the real irony of the drama. Is it not anything for the collective consciousness of world community? There is an old adage coming from the realm of jurisprudence, “better that the guilty escape, than the innocent suffer”! Here we must focus on salvaging the planet holistically.
7.10 It is said that some $100 billion per year must come as commitment aimed at climate finance. Despite the conflicting claims of its actual quantum among the various groups like Oxfam, how it is being measured empirically is the moot question. What constitutes the $ 100 bn? It is worth recalling that the developed nations have committed under the Paris Agreement to allocate $100 billion per year from 2020 onwards to facilitate emission cuts in poorer countries and also effect technology transfer in this context. Nonetheless, developing countries needed space to grow and the developed ones must move to a net minus paradigm and meet climate finance obligation.
7.11The extremes of flood and fire are not going away, but adaptation can lessen their impact. Greenhouse gas-emissions have produced a planet more than 1 degree C warmer compared to the pre-industrial days. Six years ago, in Paris, the world nations committed themselves to avoiding the worst of that nightmare by eliminating net greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to hold the temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius. Alas the progress towards that end is woefully inadequate. It is worthwhile to study the most spectacular and scary form of adaptation– solar geoengineering. Research done during the last decade and half has suggested solar geoengineering might significantly reduce some of the harms from greenhouse warming. This offers a ray of hope. The most recent sudden deluge struck again Kerala –India, can be best understood, if we go through the internationally famous Madhav Gadgil Report on Western Ghats.
7.12Many questions were on the minds of world leaders in the run up to the UNs COP 26 climate submit held from Oct 31st to 12th November in Glasgow. It is said that hydrogens moment has come at last. If taken seriously, the hydrogen technologies could eliminate some ten per cent of the greenhouse – gas emissions by 2050. Hydrogen has its limitations. Research may be focused on blue hydrogen. It can play a vital role in bringing about cleaner energy.
7.13 Some 80 percent of the emissions are caused by oil producers, utilities, cement firms, and mining companies. It is assumed that only a tiny number of firms are investing heavily in renewable energy or breakthrough energies. This demands a better energy transition regime under the SDGs of the United Nations by 2030. We must collectively give it a chance to hope.
7.14 Once the member countries are fully convinced of the need and urgency of taking collective and concerted actions to address the issue squarely, civil societies in member countries may be roped in a big way to become the grassroot level executing agencies on a war footing. Schools, colleges and universities, NGOs, hospitals, hostels and hotels all must be torch bearers of climate resilience. Educational institutions, as mentioned above, must run essay completions and elocution competitions among the students, teachers and parents to become participants as ambassadors to inculcate climate consciousness.
7.15 Similarly civic society like Rotary, Lions, YMCA, WCC, YWCA local libraries and the like must play active role to contain greenhouse gas emissions. Housing societies seeking building plans to be permitted by the local government offices must submit plans for green belt around them for compliance.
7.16 Religious establishments of all shades must be given special targets by the governments to become active partners in arresting the ill effects of gas emissions. They all must have a fixed land -building green park ratios in action.
7.17Targets may be given to all local bodies to comply with emission containing measures with stipulated time frame as 2030 is a non-negotiable date to achieve the global target.
7.18 Every school must set up a well maintained green park and at appropriate places local governments must identify suitable places for bird sanctuaries.
The area under forest cover must be fully protected and the depleted forests must be replenished on an ongoing basis.
7. 19The national and state/ provincial governments must keep on adding incremental efforts with political will, so that a visibly greener landscape would emerge on a sustainable basis.
7.20 Participating governments must setup a Green Climate Fund expeditiously, so that the target of 2030 is achievable.
7.21 It is very sad to recall the available UN data, which says only 26 out of 193 countries have followed up the COP 26 recommendations. It leads to a logical heart searching question, are we all making a mockery of the annual pilgrimage to places in the name climate changes and fooling the vast majority!
7.22Big economies like India should also use their global monopsony, or the power of a large buyer in international trade, to impose a carbon tariff as envisaged by the EU. Focusing on trade is vital because reducing the domestic carbon content of production alone would not avert the harm if imports remain carbon-intensive. Therefore, leading emitters should use their monopsony, diplomacy and financial capabilities to forge a climate coalition with partners.
7.23 India is among the nations that are hardest hit by climate impacts. There is growing public support for climate action, but we need solutions that are seen to be in India’s interest. A market-oriented approach to tax and trade carbon domestically and to induce similar action by others through international trade and diplomacy offers a way forward.
7.24 Efforts must be in place to set up Green Climate Fund Corpus in every member country, so that our mission is not a bite without and a smoke without fire.
7.25 Let the torch bearers of the SDGs of the UN embrace a new paradigm in the form of launching environmental evangelism as our new creed. The future beckons, shall we falter!
Acknowledgements:
I place on record my sincere appreciation for the timely support and technical help provided by Dr. K P P Nambiar, Former FAO Director, Prof Dr. Ms. Suparna S Mukherji, Dr. BJ Meledom and Dr. AC Peter while finalizing the first draft of this paper.
Dated 1stst November–2022