By Dr. KM George, Secretary General of Global Millets Foundation and CEO of Sustainable Development Forum
Abstract
On September 17, 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a historic mutual defence pact, stipulating that an attack on one is considered an attack on both. This article explores the genesis of the pact, including the Pahalgam terrorist attack and India’s Operation Sindoor, its contemporary geopolitical implications, policy consequences for India, and the influence of U.S. foreign policy. Drawing on expert commentary and strategic analysis, it provides actionable recommendations for India and global policymakers navigating a multipolar security landscape.
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Introduction
- The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact represents a deepening military alliance with implications for South Asia and the Middle East.
- The agreement declares: “An attack on one is an attack on both.”
- For India, the pact intersects with longstanding security concerns, Indo-Saudi relations, and contemporary strategic developments, particularly in light of the Pahalgam attack and the swift Indian response under Operation Sindoor.
Historical Genesis: Pulwama and Pahalgam
Pulwama Attack (2019):
- Suicide bombing in Jammu and Kashmir killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, orchestrated by Pakistan-based militant groups.
- Triggered global attention on Pakistan’s proxy war strategy against India.
Pahalgam Attack (July 2025):
- Targeted terrorist attack in Pahalgam prompted India to launch Operation Sindoor, eliminating the perpetrators.
- The operation combined military precision, indigenous technology, and diplomatic strategy to punish Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism.
Pakistan’s Strategic Role:
- Persistent sponsorship of terrorism has been a key element in Pakistan’s asymmetric strategy against India.
- Both Pulwama and Pahalgam incidents highlight the continuing relevance of external support for non-state actors in destabilizing South Asia.
Operation Sindoor: India’s Swift and Calibrated Response
Key Aspects:
- Balanced Military Action:
- Targeted terror infrastructure using precision missiles and drones.
- Avoided civilian casualties and large-scale Pakistani military installations.
- Advanced Indigenous Technology:
- Demonstrated India’s self-reliance with network-centric operations, drones, and electronic warfare systems.
- Calibrated De-escalation:
- Maintained conflict thresholds; avoided nuclear escalation or large-scale mobilization.
- Zero-Tolerance Policy:
- Reinforced India’s stance against terrorism, signalling consequences for state-sponsored attacks.
Broader Impact:
- Diplomatic Isolation of Pakistan: Revocation of visas, expulsion of Pakistani diplomatic staff, and international advocacy against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
- Economic and Cultural Measures: Sanctions and bans on Pakistani cultural influence in India.
- Setting a New Normal: Established a precedent for decisive military and diplomatic responses to terrorism.
Geopolitical Implications: Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact
Contemporary Patterns:
- Saudi Security Diversification: Reduces dependency on U.S.; hedge against regional instability.
- Pakistan’s Strategic Positioning: Strengthened deterrence capabilities, now complemented by Saudi support.
- China-Pakistan Nexus: Reinforced via Belt and Road investments and strategic cooperation.
- Middle East Security Dynamics: Saudi Arabia may leverage Pakistan in conflicts in Yemen and against Iranian-backed actors.
Comparative Strategic Impact:
| Factor | Pre-Pact Status | Post-Pact Status |
| Saudi military reliance | U.S.-dependent | Diversified with Pakistan |
| Pakistan regional leverage | Moderate | Strengthened via Saudi backing |
| India-Pakistan tension | Ongoing border and proxy conflicts | Potentially elevated; emboldened Pakistan |
| Middle East influence | Largely U.S.-dominated | More independent Saudi strategic posture |
Policy Implications for India
Direct Security Concerns:
- Pakistan-Saudi cooperation may embolden Islamabad in disputed regions and asymmetric warfare strategies.
- Operation Sindoor demonstrated India’s capacity to respond decisively, mitigating some risk of embodiment.
Diplomatic Engagement:
- India must engage Saudi Arabia strategically to safeguard bilateral interests and prevent misalignment of regional security calculations.
Policy Recalibration:
- Strengthen partnerships with the U.S., UAE, Israel, Japan, and other regional actors to maintain strategic balance.
Sovereignty Considerations:
- Vigilance is required to ensure Pakistan-Saudi alignment does not constrain India’s strategic autonomy or operational flexibility.
The U.S. Factor and Contemporary Context
- U.S. policy under President Trump created unpredictability, prompting Riyadh to diversify alliances.
- Fluctuating U.S. positions on Israel, Iran, and Gulf security influenced Saudi decision-making.
- The pact reflects broader global strategic recalibrations in 2024–2025, including Indo-Pacific security realignments.
Regional Security Dynamics
Emerging Challenges:
- India-Pakistan Tensions: Formal Saudi support for Pakistan could elevate border tensions and asymmetric threats.
- Gulf Security: Pakistan-Saudi alignment enables coordinated influence in Yemen and countering Iranian proxies.
- Global Policy Considerations: Highlights the need for adaptive multi-layered security strategies in a multipolar world.
Expert Commentary
- Dr. Ahmed Al-Faisal: “The pact reflects Riyadh’s independent security calculations amidst U.S. unpredictability.”
- Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Vikram Singh: “India must anticipate a stronger Pakistan; Operation Sindoor demonstrates that decisive responses are possible.”
- Dr. Ranjit Gupta: “The pact signals multi-polarity in regional security; India must maintain strategic autonomy and leverage partnerships effectively.”
Policy Recommendations
- Strengthen Indo-Saudi Ties: High-level strategic engagement to safeguard mutual interests.
- Enhance Defence Readiness: Modernize intelligence, border security, and deterrence capabilities.
- Diversify Strategic Partnerships: Reinforce ties with U.S., UAE, Israel, Japan, and other regional powers.
- Engage in Multilateral Forums: Utilize UN, IORA, and SCO for counter-terrorism and regional stability.
- Monitor China-Pakistan Coordination: Factor these dynamics into strategic planning and foreign policy formulation.
Conclusion
The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact, when viewed alongside India’s Operation Sindoor, reflects the evolving complexity of regional security.
- Challenges: Elevated Pakistan leverage, asymmetric threats, potential border escalation.
- Opportunities: Diplomatic engagement with Saudi Arabia, proactive defence preparedness, and strategic partnerships.
Policymakers globally must recognize the fluidity of alliances and prepare adaptive strategies to navigate this multipolar security environment. India’s strategic foresight, coupled with technological and diplomatic capacity, ensures both national security and regional stability.
Dr. KM George is the Secretary General of the Global Millets Foundation and CEO of the Sustainable Development Forum. He has extensive experience in international relations, strategic policy analysis, and global development initiatives.